The private capital sector stands at an inflection point. As economic volatility collides with regulatory shifts and geopolitical tensions, fund managers must navigate an increasingly complex landscape where traditional playbooks may no longer suffice.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, we sat down with James Maloney, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Tiger Hill Partners, a government relations and strategic communications firm that advises alternative asset managers and institutional investors, to decode the forces reshaping private capital. With his unique vantage point—spanning board advisory work, regulatory advocacy, and corporate communications—James offers a rare perspective on how policy and politics now drive investment decisions.
In our conversation, James dissects the current market dynamics, explores emerging regulatory developments, and reveals why Washington has become as important as Wall Street for private capital success. His insights illuminate both the challenges and opportunities ahead for an industry in transition.
James, from your vantage point at Tiger Hill Partners, how would you characterize the current state of the private capital landscape?
We are fortunate to advise leading firms and institutional partners that range in their stages, investment theses, business lines, and geographies. It is hard to characterize an entire industry, but to say it is a fascinating if uneven moment of change. We see novel strategies, partnerships, and products fit for deployment and formed with long-view conviction. Firms and funds are also more expressly focused on differentiation with an ever-sharpening eye to execute in a demanding deal environment and tightened liquidity conditions - all against a fast-changing macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.
In our conversations with industry leaders, we hear two consistent and complementary themes: The need to maintain focus on fundamentals for in-place businesses, weighed against the need to innovate within enterprise operations and capture value via new products or markets. Both themes are validated by prevailing industry developments.
In my view, these themes also indicate a transitional period. The industry continues to accelerate and expand its footprint, but recognizes discipline is paramount for success. If private capital has reached maturation vis-à-vis previous decades, it seems apparent we are entering a new phase of industry growth.
Interest rate volatility, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty define today’s environment. What’s your outlook for private capital through early 2026?
Thinking ahead to the second half of the year, and perhaps further into early 2026, I expect some divergence in performance between firms that correctly calibrate for these cited external conditions, and those still finding their footing.
It is no secret that monetary policy, and specifically the Federal Reserve’s response to inflationary pressures, will drive consequential economic conditions – good, bad, or otherwise. Private capital is more resilient than most industries, but even non-cyclical, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated private capital approaches need to brace for impact.
If they haven’t already done so, firms should scenario plan for a range of outcomes and prepare to capitalize across macro conditions. The outlook for the industry writ large is dependent on the balance of individual firms readying themselves now. Perhaps I am biased by my specific line of work, but this requires continual monitoring and analysis across economic indicators and positioning effectively for policy, geopolitical, or market dislocations.
Washington’s influence on private capital continues to grow. What regulatory developments should fund managers be watching most closely over the next year?
Washington doesn’t just regulate investment decisions any longer, it drives them.
There are several significant regulatory drivers for fund managers. The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering the implementation of less burdensome, right-sized regulations for private funds. It is also examining the expansion of the accredited investor definition and retail thresholds for additional exposure. In a similar vein, the Department of Labor is likely to consider appropriate exposure to alternatives within defined contribution plans. On Capitol Hill, a generally favorable tax reform package is taking shape. Among other pro-growth provisions, the plan includes restoring the business interest deduction of 30% of EBITDA, a standard that was in effect through 2021.
On the other hand, the same proposed legislation would significantly restrict clean energy tax incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act. This action could harm fund managers active in specific industries. And there is no escaping tariff uncertainty, which has cascading effects but is most immediate for global alternative asset managers.
Across the board, fund managers and investors can and should engage with policymakers to optimize firm-level outcomes, as well as regulatory agendas that can benefit their portfolios. Moreover, the application of regulatory and legislative due diligence can reveal material unrealized value, or expose regulatory roadblocks, before deals are done. The more Washington has a hand in decision-making, the more market participants need to spend time in the Beltway.
Trade tensions and supply chain disruptions remain persistent themes. How are your portfolio companies—particularly those with cross-border operations—adapting to this new reality?
Viewed specifically from an operational standpoint, portfolio companies are better insulated from ongoing trade disputes because of measures first instituted during the pandemic. This is not at all a direct solution, but as we all recall, the pandemic placed in sharp relief the need to optimize supply chain management – namely, reduce single-source dependencies. The firms we advise are not starting from scratch. They have an existing portfolio playbook to assess and address cross-border risks and maintain a diversified supplier network to offset country-of-origin concerns. Of course, the actual impact on a given company is case-by-case, but the throughline is demand for situational certainty.
So the next set of questions, and the ones we are now working with firms to solve, is when and how to either adjust operations because of trade policies, or if and how to engage with policymakers to assess tariff off-ramps. For all portfolio companies, and particularly those with cross-border or EM exposure, the goal is to identify the fastest and surest approach for continued value creation. Does this mean exiting or entering new markets, reallocating resources, weathering short-term volatility, or a blend of these options? Once answered, firms and companies can enact a corresponding course of action.
The Road Ahead
Our conversation with James Maloney reveals an industry at a crossroads. Private capital firms face a dual imperative: maintaining operational discipline while innovating for the future. The winners will be those who recognize that success now requires fluency in both financial markets and policy landscapes.
James’s emphasis on scenario planning and proactive regulatory engagement reflects a broader truth in today’s environment, the best investment strategies account for political and policy variables as much as market fundamentals. For private capital firms, the path forward demands not just financial acumen, but strategic agility and Washington savvy.
As the industry enters its next phase of evolution, the firms that thrive will be those that embrace this complexity rather than resist it. The stakes have never been higher, but neither have the opportunities for those prepared to navigate them.
About James Maloney
James Maloney is Founder and Managing Partner of Tiger Hill Partners. He is a trusted advisor to business leaders on policy, politics, high-stakes corporate reputational matters, and transformative situations. James is particularly sought out for his ability to work across highly regulated industries and to guide companies through periods of growth or change.
James was previously a senior member of the Financial Communications & Capital Markets practice at the consulting firm Edelman, where he led engagements with global alternative asset managers and other private capital clients. Earlier, James was the Head of Public Affairs for the American Investment Council, the leading private equity industry trade association. He directed the Council’s external affairs and coalitions, advised on government relations, and he was a member of the senior leadership team that led the Council’s successful lobbying efforts, particularly during the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. James also led policy and communications for numerous U.S. Congressional campaigns and began his career in corporate strategy.
His policy and market insights are routinely quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Politico, and other publications. He currently serves on the Sustaining Board of Youth INC and the Board of Directors for the Virginia Council on Economic Education.
